The Conservative Party performed more strongly than many expected in the local elections because they’ve been given the benefit of the doubt by Brexiteers. It was a gaze into the future of what is possible for the party if it has the guts to see this through.
Even with Theresa May’s flakiness and lack of conviction when it comes to Britain’s independence, the party mopped up the pro-Brexit vote.
All night we heard of the UKIP vote collapsing and going Tory. Dudley was a classic example where on the night local Tories cited switching Brexiteers from purple to blue as the reason that they were winning seats. There they gained six seats on the night, meaning that they are now level with Labour on the Council.
— Rob Mayor (@robmayor) May 4, 2018
Number crunching expert Sir John Curtice spelt it out: “The Conservative Party has been reminded tonight that the electorate it now has is disproportionately a Leave electorate…something like 70% of the Conservative vote are people who voted Leave and that therefore above all what the Conservative Party has to be able to do in the coming weeks and months is to deliver on Brexit in a way that will satisfy the aspirations of Leave voters.”
Other analysis of the numbers has shown that the Tories weren’t picking up votes in strongly Remain areas, but were instead benefiting from increased support in strongly pro-Brexit areas. In other words, it was the Brexiteers wot won it.
The Conservative vote flatlined in pro-Remain areas but surged by nearly 10 pts where Leave was strong – @whatukthinks
— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) May 7, 2018
This is a timely reminder given the total lack of leadership being shown by the Prime Minister, as Boris Johnson and others tear apart the soft EU Customs partnership option which would not deliver the full independence that the majority in the country crave.
The Brexiteer vote cannot be taken for granted. Less than half of 2015 UKIP voters backed the Conservatives in 2017, with lots staying at home and others voting Labour.
If the Tories want to win over these voters and convince them to stick with them, then there can be no half-way house, no dither, dilution or delay on Brexit.
In my opinion, if the Conservatives were to deliver a full, clean Brexit whilst finally slashing migration, becoming fiscally conservative when it comes to the foreign aid budget, being much tougher on law and order whilst arguing in favour of replacing the Europhile House of Lords with an elected Senate, they could clean up.
If Conservatives hold nerve and deliver on Brexit, slash migration, cut foreign aid & go hard on law and order, they could properly decimate Labour.
— Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver) May 4, 2018
Ultimately, the Brexiteer vote can’t be beaten. Every single person who voted against leaving the European Union was defeated at the ballot box in a straight vote.
The Leave majority now want to see the government take on Remoaner MPs, Europhile Lords and the increasingly unhinged European Union. If they do, they’ll continue to be rewarded by voters at the ballot box. Bottling it now would be a catastrophic mistake.