The French election is no foregone conclusion.
Though the odds are stacked against Marine Le Pen, here are some numbers to think about.
She starts off the race against Emmanuel Macron on 40%, a higher starting base than many realise:
— Ifop (@IfopOpinion) April 24, 2017
Crucial to which way the election goes is how the votes of those who supported conservative candidate Francois Fillon and far-lefty Jean-Luc Melenchon end up splitting.
Despite Fillon having endorsed Macron to stop Le Pen, one third of Fillon’s supporters are already planning to back Le Pen, with 41% backing Macron and the remaining 26% undecided.
A huge 30% of far-left Melenchon’s supporters meanwhile are also unsure. Whilst 51% are planning to vote for Macron, one fifth are backing Le Pen. Will the remaining 30% stay at home, back Macron or Le Pen?
— Paris Match (@ParisMatch) April 24, 2017
The deck is stacked in Macron’s favour. But if undecided Melenchon and Fillon voters swing Le Pen’s way, it could get very interesting indeed.