The Bank of England’s Governor, Mark Carney, is already saying that a No Deal Brexit would be much less worse than had previously been predicted…by his Bank.
Back in November the Bank of England said that after three years of a WTO Brexit the economy would be smaller by between 4.75% and 7.75%.
But Carney now says that contingency plans in place mean that the damage would be 2% lower in a disruptive model and 3.5% in the worst case scenario. That’s quite the shift in three months.
Speaking to a House of Lords committee yesterday, Carney said: “If you took the scenarios that we had for a No Deal and you referenced the disruptive and the disorderly, and it depends what your counterfactual is – so what are we comparing it to – if we compare those as we did in November to our forecast of the economy at the time which presumed something broadly consistent with the Prime Minister’s deal…the potential hit to GDP was just under 5% in the disruptive and just under 8% in the disorderly.
“The items I indicated earlier, given our modelling of the situation, would pull back somewhere between 2% to 3.5% of those losses depending on the scenario.
And he added: “Since we released the scenarios in November there have been some constructive developments in terms of preparedness.
“That reduces the level of economic shock.”
Meanwhile the Bank of England have said that the UK’s banking and financial system can cope with a WTO Brexit, with households and firms in the European Union being those that would be disrupted.
The Bank’s Financial Policy Committee has said: “Some disruption to cross-border services is possible and, in the absence of other actions by EU authorities, some potential risks to financial stability remain.”
Leaving with No Deal means a dynamic future for Brexit Britain, free to slash tariffs and act as an independent nation outside of the European Union. Keeping No Deal on the table is absolutely essential for the UK moving forward.