A new forecast by Electoral Calculus has indicated that the Brexit Party could win up to 252 MPs depending on who the Conservative Party elect as their new Leader and Prime Minister.
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It uses new numbers from ComRes, who find Labour leading for a General Election on 27%, the Conservatives on 23% and the Brexit Party on 22%.
— Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) June 11, 2019
Electoral Calculus have then forecast that if Rory Stewart won the Tory leadership, it would lead to more than 252 Brexit MPs.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson is forecast to win a majority of 395 seats in Parliament, whilst Sajid Javid and Michael Gove would lead to 123 or 90 Brexit Party MPs.
Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab is forecast to win the second most seats if he was Conservative Leader, with 269 seats.
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) June 11, 2019
Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus has told The Telegraph: “Currently the Labour Party is close to a majority, as Leave voters are split between Conservatives and the Brexit Party, and no Remain party has overtaken Labour.
“The poll indicates that Boris Johnson could win back large numbers of voters from the Brexit Party and could win a substantial majority over a divided opposition.
“Other leadership candidates would not have the same effect, although Dominic Raab could keep the Conservatives as the largest party.
“Paradoxically, choosing Rory Stewart could push even more disaffected Conservatives to vote for the Brexit Party and might propel Nigel Farage toward Number 10.
“The next General Election will be won by whoever can unite the most voters to their party, and these figures suggest Mr Johnson is the best Conservative to do that.”
Of course this all relies on those standing for the Tory leadership to deliver. If Boris, or anyone else who has pledged to take the UK out of the EU on 31st October failed to deliver, then expect another Brexit Party surge.