A clear majority of Conservative grassroot members now back a No Deal Brexit over Theresa May’s proposed deal.
That is the verdict delivered in a new bombshell YouGov poll carried out for the Party Members Project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.
When given the choice of leaving the EU with No Deal or May’s deal, 64% of Conservatives back leaving without an agreement compared to 29% who support what the PM has brought back from Brussels. Mainstream Tory opinion is now backing a No Deal Brexit.
For No Deal vs. Remain, a huge 76% of Tory members would back leaving the EU without a deal.
Three-quarters (76%) of Conservatives also believe that the dire establishment warnings about No Deal are ‘exaggerated or invented’. They simply are not buying the Project Fear doomsday rubbish this time around either.
Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University has said: “If Theresa May is hoping that her MPs will return to Westminster having been persuaded by their Constituency Associations to back her Brexit deal, she’s going to be disappointed.
“It appears that those members are in no mood for compromise.
“Moreover, the Tory rank and file, it seems, are convinced that No Deal is better than May’s deal.”
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Specifically on a No Deal Brexit, Professor Bale makes clear the Conservative mood: “Tory members, like Tory voters, are utterly unconvinced, despite their own government’s best recent efforts, that a No Deal Brexit would cause serious disruption.
“Some 72% of voters currently intending to support the Conservatives think the warnings are ‘exaggerated or invented’ – a figure that rises to 76% among Tory members.
“Meanwhile, those members are convinced by a margin of 64% to 19% that leaving without a deal would have a positive rather than a negative effect on Britain’s economy in the medium to long term.”
This should be a wake-up call for the establishment. Conservative supporters expect the Tory Prime Minister to deliver Brexit, deal or No Deal, and they aren’t willing to be fobbed off with more scare stories. Come March 29th this year, the UK must leave the European Union. The country voted to leave, not for a deal.