The French election is no foregone conclusion.
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Though the odds are stacked against Marine Le Pen, here are some numbers to think about.
She starts off the race against Emmanuel Macron on 40%, a higher starting base than many realise:
— Ifop (@IfopOpinion) April 24, 2017
Crucial to which way the election goes is how the votes of those who supported conservative candidate Francois Fillon and far-lefty Jean-Luc Melenchon end up splitting.
Despite Fillon having endorsed Macron to stop Le Pen, one third of Fillon’s supporters are already planning to back Le Pen, with 41% backing Macron and the remaining 26% undecided.
A huge 30% of far-left Melenchon’s supporters meanwhile are also unsure. Whilst 51% are planning to vote for Macron, one fifth are backing Le Pen. Will the remaining 30% stay at home, back Macron or Le Pen?
— Paris Match (@ParisMatch) April 24, 2017
The deck is stacked in Macron’s favour. But if undecided Melenchon and Fillon voters swing Le Pen’s way, it could get very interesting indeed.