Cesspool on the Potomac
Obama: What it's gonna take
This week's conventional wisdom — and oh, how Westmonster is tired of hearing about the conventional wisdom — is that Barack Obama has finally broken through and is steamrolling toward the Democratic Presidential nomination. Bully for him. The steamroller has been derailed at every turn in this primary season, and while Hillary Clinton's campaign seems to be in disarray, and Obama may appear to have the upper hand at the moment, it's anything but clear sailing for him to the Democratic nomination. Hillary Clinton is tough, resilient, owed a ton of favours, and has all the advantages afforded to a family that has lorded over the Democratic party for 15 years.
There's a big difference between being anointed by the media and actually standing in November's election… here, below, is what will have to happen for Obama to get the nomination. And even if all this happens, there are no guarantees.
1. A clear, convincing sweep of February votes
Rightly or wrongly, Obama is expected to take each of today's "Potomac Primaries" by double-digits. He is also favoured in next week's Wisconsin primary and heavily favoured in next week's Hawaii primary. If Obama fails to meet expectations in these primaries (single-digit wins in Maryland or Virginia), or manages to lose one (Wisconsin?), the media will once again start reporting about Hillary Clinton: Comeback Kid.
2. No gaffes
This one seems like a no-brainer — in a tight race like this, either candidate can ill afford a screw up. But nobody's questioning Hillary's overall competence, and she could recover. Obama, on the other hand, has largely managed to survive despite questions about his experience and readiness for the job, relying on the voters' faith in him. A single cock-up or embarrassing moment could derail that faith, and his candidacy.
3. A win in either Ohio or Texas on March 4
A major dig on Obama has been his inability to close in so-called "Big States," where major delegate prizes are awarded, and which will need to be won in the general election if the Democrats are to win the presidency. He's not expected to win in either state at the moment, and there's no reliable polling, but it's speculated he has a better chance in Ohio. If he loses both, he'll (a) have lost his February momentum, and (b) give Clinton's campaign a "He can't win in the big states" narrative that could doom his candidacy.
4. Progress winning over superdelegates
Even if he manages all of the above, in fact even if he won every single remaining primary or caucus by an average of 10 points, proportional allocation of delegates with the Democrats will make it impossible for him to have the 2,025 pledged delegates (the ones decided by voters) he needs to secure the nomination. "Superdelegates" can choose whomever they want, and he'll likely need half of the 700+ on offer to push him over the top. At present, he trails Clinton by about 100 superdelegates, and the Clintons won't go away quietly. It is not an unlikely scenario that Obama could have won more delegates than Clinton from people who actually voted, but he would lose the nomination because Hillary got more superdelegates, who are not decided by voters. Democracy in action — you've got to love it.
So, there you have it. Obama's insurgent campaign has, from the very beginning, been a long shot. And it yet could work out for him, but he has to deliver on the expectations, not screw up, and surprise everyone in either Ohio or Texas. That's a perfect storm, and it will not be easy for him.
Obama may look like the frontrunner at the moment, but all the frontrunner's advantages belong to Hillary Clinton.
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2 Comments
Do you reckon Superdelegates will risk voting against popular opinion in order to push forward Mrs. Clinton. And what will this do combined with recent polls showing her likely to lose a competition against John McCain to the Democratic bid for the Presidency?
Do you think Superdelegates will risk losing the race just in order to push Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Obama? I don't think so.
Ilia-
I don't think we can accurately say at this point what the superdelegates will do, or what role they will play.
It's hard — but not impossible — to imagine they would vote against the popular opinion. And the Clintons are well known for playing hardball in politics.
If Obama had a clear delegate lead, things just might fall in line for him. But superdelegates otherwise inclined to support Clinton would be faced with a very difficult decision, because they would have to publicly support Obama without any guarantee enough other superdelegates would do the same.
In short, even in that case each superdelegate would make their decision with the lingering possibility that Clinton could win — at their own possible peril.
It's an unprecedented scenario, but as I said, not entirely unlikely.