Which way will Edwards' support flow?

Westmonster can't even seem to go out to lunch these days without another candidate dropping out of the U.S. Presidential race. Today, news comes that John Edwards is calling it quits, in a move that could have major consequences for the Democratic nomination contest.

Edwards, who's been polling around 15 per cent in recent contests, only finished above third place — and even then only by one point — in the election cycle's first caucus, in Iowa. Questions have loomed of late regarding his ability to maintain his campaign while his perceived non-viability presumably cut deeply into his ability to raise funds.

Now, the question looms of where Edwards' support flows to. Edwards is not expected to make an endorsement of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in advance of next week's Super Tuesday primaries in 22 states. And conventional wisdom holds that an Edwards withdrawal primarly boosts Obama, as they have both positioned their campaigns as being against the Washington establishment.

But in this election cycle, nothing is that simple, and it cannot be taken for granted that Edwards voters will take to Obama so handily. Firstly, American voters love a winner, and Clinton — despite Obama's success in some states — clearly holds the front-runner status. Secondly, while Edwards has generally made a populist appeal to the left wing of the Democratic party, polls reflect that it's Clinton who's most popular amongst the Democratic left, with Obama's appeal more in the moderate wing.

Lastly, there's the question of demographics and, though Westmonster hates to bring it up, race. On age demographics, a sizeable portion of Edwards' support consists of older Democrats — a group that overwhelmingly breaks toward Hillary. And on race, there are probably some voters — most likely in the south — who, if forced, will choose a white woman over a black man to be president.

As we've said above, though, conventional wisdom definitely puts most of Edwards' support in Obama's camp.

Now, for Obama, the stakes on Super Tuesday have skyrocketed. He's head-to-head against Hillary, and can no longer rely on Edwards' tally to keep Clinton below the 50 per cent threshold in these primaries that have led some to question whether her support has a ceiling. This is the race Obama wanted, and now he's got it — but now, he's got to perform.

Written by Andrew Levy on 30 Jan 2008 3:26 PM. Permalink