What would Dave do?

The Conservative party needs 14 countries to back its drive not to let the matter rest. I hope that in the right hon. Gentleman's speech he will name one country—just one—that will support his quest to reopen the treaty—[Hon. Members: "Norway."] Norway is not yet in the European Union. The truth is that there is not even one such country, and what the Conservative commitment means is a further referendum pledge, renegotiation or withdrawal. It is important to look through the consequences.

And there we have the rub. The Tories are picking a way at a scab - Blair's promise of a referendum - but their own wounds on Europe are beginning to show. It shows in significant ways - Jon Craig roasting William Hague this morning for not having a Europe policy and for screwing up the logistics of opposition last night - and in trivial ways, such as the fact that we can't find a reference to a Europe policy on the Conservative website, and a search for "lisbon treaty" on the same website yields only one result: a statement from an MEP (not even an MP!) about Brown's "humiliation" at the signature.

This is very dodgy ground for Cammers, as Ken Clarke pointed out:

I personally think that referendums are a way of weakening Parliament and getting round parliamentary authority in regard to key issues of this kind. I have never accepted that they should be the way forward. For example, the House should vote this evening that it is in favour of the Bill and of the treaty. If we were then to hold a kind of organised opinion poll in which the right-wing press would seek to achieve the result that it wanted, and if ratification of the treaty were defeated, would we all be expected to come back to the House and vote against our judgment of the national interest in line with the result of the referendum? And who on earth is going to tell us what to do in the circumstances that would follow that?

He preceded this with an argument that Blair only agreed to a referendum because he was forced into it by Murdoch. So, here is the problem. Fast forward three or four years. David Cameron is Prime Minister. He (rather stupidly) agrees to a referendum as part of the Tory manifesto. The referendum is held. The population vote against the EU Treaty which was signed three years previously.

What then?

We know what Guido Fawkes wants. We know that Gordon Brown wants. We know what Nick Clegg wants. We have no idea what David Cameron wants. Politics abhors a vacuum, and if he's not careful that vacuum will be filled by Bill Cash and Andrew Robathon.