Florida's two-ring circus

It seems to Westmonster all the big news has been coming out of the Democratic camp lately, following Obama's big win in South Carolina and the Bill Clinton backlash that followed. But today in Florida — home of 2000's hanging chads — there's a contest that's meaningless among Democrats, but may determine the outcome of the race for Republicans.

The Florida Republican primary is a lot like a two-ring circus. In the center ring, you have John McCain and Mitt Romney, statistically tied in the polls, duking it out to see who is the legitimate frontrunner for the GOP nod. In the other ring, you have the last gasp of Rudy Giuliani's candidacy; appearing mortally wounded at the moment, a comeback win (or close second) from Giuliani could resurrect his campaign and throw the entire GOP race into complete and utter chaos.

A Romney win had been looking inevitable in Florida as recently as Friday, until the popular governor of Florida (and potential Vice Presidential candidate) Charlie Crist stepped in and endorsed McCain. That move put the two neck-and-neck in the polls, but gave the late momentum to McCain.

Giuliani, on the other hand, has put all of his chips down on the state, where he had a double-digit lead in statewide polls as recently as a month ago. The former New York mayor has a natural constituency amongst Florida's significant population of expatriate New Yorkers, but didn't count on the fact that failing to compete in early primary states would erode his lead completely. He currently stands on 14% in the polls, trailing well behind McCain and Romney, who are each on roughly 30%.

We'll find out today if America's Mayor can pull off a miracle that's looking increasingly unlikely. If he does, that could completely shift the dynamic of the race heading into Super Tuesday — a date when New York (Rudy's home state), New Jersey and Connecticut (the states next door) hold their primaries — and leave the GOP race undecided for a while to come. But a win by Romney or McCain will make the victor look inevitable, at least until the next shift in this volatile race.

Written by Andrew Levy on 29 Jan 2008 8:51 AM. Permalink