Cameron nearing 1992 levels?

Polls are la-la and mood music in the papers is pointless. When we want to know which way political sentiment is running, we turn to Mike Smithson's Political Betting, and today he's got a doozy. He reckons the predicted number of Tory seats in an election, according to Sporting Index, is now at its highest level since 1992. In the last few days, the number of predicted seats has jumped by three or four, which, according to Simpson, is a lot.

I stand to be corrected but I think that this is the highest level that the Tories have been at since the 1992 general election.

Normally these markets move up in relatively small steps and a three/four seat jump is quite unusual. Whether this will be sustained or even move higher it is hard to predict. But the current level are considerably smaller than the 345 Tory seats that the commons seat calculators are predicting on the recent 10% Tory poll leads.

As we've said before, Nick Clegg's appointment as LibDem leader and some Labour come-hither stuff on electoral reform are potentially far more interesting than the mainstream media seems to think. Clegg may move the LibDem's to the right, but that just means moving them more firmly into Labour territory rather than towards the Tories. And according to Sporting Index, at current rates Labour will only get 265-271 seats, while the LibDems are at 47-50 - ie, down by almost 13.

If these signs are real, they indicate:

Continuing Tory momentum _ but not enough
A paradox for Nick Clegg - being squeezed by a resurgent Tory party, but also becoming more relevant as a potential ally for either of the two big parties
The lack of an overarching narrative that gives either major party an extra kick of momentum.

That narrative might be any number of things - personal freedoms v. identity cards, tax cuts v. European-style tax levels, choice v. equality, new competence v. familiar experience. One thing it's not is climate change, Davey. But whatever it is, Cameron doesn't have it yet. And the clock is ticking.

Written by Lloyd Shepherd on 23 Jan 2008 10:36 AM. Permalink