All bets are off

The YouGov poll in today's Sunday Times is one of those "all your bases are belong to us" moments for the Tories, indicating as it does that Dave has reached his target of 45% share (which would translate into a whopping 90+ seat majority), 13 points ahead of Labour. As money talks, it's worth pointing out politicalbetting's post, which says this has already caused massive shifts in the spread betting world.

It's a big moment for Dave, particularly as it coms on the back of a week which featured one of Labour's Big Narratives - Ed Balls' Children's Plan. But even that seems to have been poisoned by the bad air around Brown - his performance behind closed doors at the EU Treaty signing remains the thing that cynical hacks want to talk about, not the inter-generational super-plans of the Department of Children and Schools.

We could adopt the traditional media stance here: everyone else is saying this is good news for Cameron, so let's unpick it a bit and look big and clever. But it is good news for Cameron, it's terrible for Brown, and the only thing we'll do is point to the Economist's article this week which helpfully (in that smug, we've-got-better-degrees-than-you way) points out some of the things Cameron should worry about: the paucity of front-bench talent in the Conservative MP ranks, Boris Johnson's basket case of a mayor campaign, and the potentially resurgent LibDems under HuhneCleggMan. But for now, Cameron can put his feet up and enjoy a pre-Christmas drink-responsibly bender. Cheers!