Karma Chameleon

Westmonster has long been of the opinion that the talk of an early poll was a cunning plan by the comrades, and one she referred to - somewhat inelegantly - as "the premature ejaculation strategy." The theory behind this was that if Brown spent the summer being enigmatic about the possibility of a snap election, the Tories would be panicked into a retreat to the right, thus scuppering Dave's attempts to look young, cuddly, and green. The chances of Brown actually heading back to his constituency to prepare for Government, we maintained, were slim - it was merely a plan to make the Tories look like a bunch of reactionary berks.

But after some stonking (if slightly inconclusive) polling during the week of Labour Party Conference, the mood has shifted. MPs are talking about spending October being bitten by dogs and abused by members of the public with a grim resignation. Not that anyone knows, mind you - we're just guessing it will. Has this knackered Brown's ability to maneouvre? Possibly. There's a risk he might look slightly silly if, after a decent showing by the Conservatives, he decides not go for it after all.