He will, or won't, by Sunday

Allow Westmonster to set the scene. Polls are showing a big bounce. Newly smoke-free and sterile bunkers are crowding with "key decision makers." Commentators are out of breath. The Papers are out of breath. And this morning Today is leading on Dave mocking Gord over the suggestion that he'll wimp out of a snap poll.

No decision will be taken until Sunday, when the weekend polling comes in and the marginal seats data has been fully analysed, but rumour has it that the news from the shires does not augur well for Brown with the returns only showing "patchy" support for the comrades.

The "two Eds" - Brown's closest advisors - will be key to any decision. From the tone of the leaks coming out of the bunker in the Big Tent, we'll probably know by Sunday (Saturday night?) whether Gordon's going to order Chinese takeaway or go out for a curry.

Meanwhile over tiffin at the Carlton Club, Cameron has to be seen as not afraid of an election - a position he was initially forced into on Saturday as he morosely trudged around news studios muttering "bring it on" without any real conviction, but now he's sounding positively Che Guevara-like as he ups the pressure on Gord to decide. If Brown goes for a snap poll, the Tories can make gains in the south-east (and the comrades will probably suffer losses in Scotland), and even if they can't win it, they can re-establish themselves as a political force for the first time in ten years. If he doesn't, they can spend intervening period between now and when an election is actually called making chicken noises across the Chamber. If not genuinely cheerful about the prospect of a 1st November poll, they don't seem to be suicidal about it either.

Written by Lloyd Shepherd on 5 Oct 2007 8:42 AM. Permalink