Ministry for the Margin of Error

Brown blinks first

brown oct.jpg Well, that's that then. Westmonster has duly cancelled her return ticket to Worksop.

Gordon forgot the first rule of bandwagons: if you're going to start one rolling you better be damn sure that you can control the bugger if it looks like it's going to run away with itself. Otherwise, you'll look like a right tit (as the political phrase goes) if you are subsequently forced to backtrack.

According to Iain Dale, what swung it was polling in the marginals that put the Tories six points ahead, combined with a prediction that Labour voters would stay at home, reducing the turnout for the comrades.

Nick Robinson, ever the master of the understatement, said that this would "damage the morale of the Labour Party." You think?

Nice timing as well: Parliament returns the day after tomorrow, and on Wednesday, Cameron and Brown will face each other across the Chamber. Great planning boys! Francis Urquhart this ain't.

So what does this mean for the Labour Party?

  • A couple of months of Cameron and his mates doing chicken impressions across the dispatch box every time Brown stands up.
  • The possible regeneration of Tory fortunes on the back of a good week at Conference.
  • The surly resentment of the backbenchers.
  • Continuing stagnation in the Departments as nobody knows whether they are treading water in advance of another election in the spring or actually meant to be, you know, running the country.
  • And, worst of all, Westmonster owes one of her mates a tenner. Thanks a lot, Gordon Brown.

Maybe Bob Shrum's alleged advice to Brown is to blame. You can just imagine a forelorn Tony Blair sitting in his office, shaking his head to and fro, not unlike a certain former U.S. President is alleged to have done when his successor (and Shrum client) Al Gore pissed away his legacy.

Well done, lads.

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