Dave's Conference gamble

What to do if you are a leader wanting to make sure your party toes the line at Conference?

Gord had the right idea: go in early, fast, and hard. Everybody knows that the leader's speech is what all the journos are staying around for - Westmonster couldn't move last Monday for tripping over Andrew Neil and Michael White - after which it's pretty much all over bar the shouting. The hacks go home, the activists wander off, and even if you do get the odd firebrand getting all "we shall not be moved" on everybody's ass in the hall, by and large nobody notices.

By the Tuesday morning of Labour Conference, the mood was subdued and there was a palpable sense of it all being over. Nobody had had the time to embarrass Brown in advance of his speech, to plot, or to disrupt the narrative. By making his speech so early on, Brown both ensured that the only news story coming out of Bournemouth was him, and killed off any opportunity for insurrection from the grass roots.

Not that Brown had much to worry about on that score anyway - the Conference was more upbeat than it had been for years. Cameron, however, has the same concerns - but a crapper situation.

In ye olden days the king (read "Cameron" or "Brown", whatever floats your boat) used to demonstrate his power by holding executions of miscreants in public places. It was a huge spectacle with the crowds coming from far and wide to watch the poor sod who'd pissed off the monarch die in unusual, often inventive, and always painful ways. The message was clear: mess with me, sunshine, and this could be you. But getting so many people together in the same place was always a bit of a gamble for the king, for where more than two people are gathered together you can bet your life that one of them will be selling The Socialist Worker. Such events were hotbeds of resentment and political agitation that threatened to unseat the monarch even as he tried to demonstrate his omnipotence.

Fast forward to the party Conference season, and you find Dave in a similar dilemma. He knows - given the recent agitations from the likes of Norman Tebbit and possibly even Boy George Osborne - that he needs to do a Brown and give a speech that closes down his Conference and any attendant attempts at insurrection from his divided and warring party. So why not go on Monday?

Well, he also knows that in advance of a snap election he needs to keep the Tories in the news for as much as possible next week in order to boost their poll ratings. Whilst Westmonster remains sceptical that the recent YouGov poll was accurate, Brown is definitely ahead and Cameron needs to chip away at this lead. So he's going to give his speech on Wednesday in order to keep the journos around...but at what risk?

Already he's made some moves away from the "green tax" policy proposals in order to (we assume) assuage those traditionalists within his party who may want to use the gathering in Blackpool to destabilise him, but will it be enough? Norman the Regicide and his pals are gearing up for a battle against King David, and in the febrile atmosphere of Conference (which has the potential to reach fever pitch by the time he takes his place on the podium on Wednesday) the outcome of Dave's attempt to exert his authority over his party is by no means certain.

Or maybe, like Sir Bob, he just doesn't like Mondays.

Written by Lloyd Shepherd on 28 Sep 2007 12:04 PM. Permalink